Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76c397b073dd5604a84af091a0721753327afd7d39640bb254ede1dfd734c2b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 4c | 664.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…f362backed Yes | 39c | 485.32$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 451.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…9326backed No | 75c | 284.77$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 72c | 265.77$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.19 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 13c | 259.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 12c | 219.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed Yes | 15c | 206.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 205.01$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 12c | 168.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 29c | 165.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 31c | 164.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 22c | 151.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 15c | 148.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 14c | 137.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 13c | 132.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 15c | 130.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 15c | 111$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 24c | 94.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 41c | 92.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 28c | 90.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 89.74$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 86.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 26c | 66.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 24c | 63.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 22c | 54.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 26c | 46.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 69c | 42.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…128abacked Yes | 27c | 38.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…f873backed No | 76c | 24.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fd…e118backed No | 79c | 14.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.