Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb42e6dc62c90fe6f6caa4544222a6cc23860a8546dea629c7747efa4ff34a806
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 396.57$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 319.86$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.17 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 275.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 261.39$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 43c | 215.76$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.36 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 74c | 204.71$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 167.63$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 73c | 140.32$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 38c | 139.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 138.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 37c | 134.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4c…5c55backed Yes | 24c | 123.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 40c | 117.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 43c | 111.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 40c | 106.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 39c | 101.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 98.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 80c | 97.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…43b6backed Yes | 12c | 90.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 26c | 88.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 56c | 87.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 33c | 87.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 83.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 40c | 74.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 34c | 63.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 29c | 63.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 65c | 63.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 23c | 57.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 22c | 55.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 50.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 36c | 50.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 49.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 62c | 47.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 39c | 46.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 40c | 46.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 57c | 45.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 37c | 44.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 34c | 41.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 66c | 40.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 58c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 35.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 38c | 34.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 78c | 33.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 42c | 33.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 76c | 32.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd5…04e1backed Yes | 34c | 31.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…128abacked Yes | 38c | 30.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…3af1backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 39c | 29.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 48c | 29.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 52c | 29.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 37c | 28.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 65c | 20.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 69c | 20.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 57c | 20.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.