Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2bc29f506799c8fdd75c3d07bce7c14133abc5881eb4b309f3ab085b2985c07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0f1…676dbacked Yes | 0c | 16,409$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 977.13$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.84 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 49c | 757.13$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.82 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 34c | 659.87$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.13 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 78c | 592.87$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.88 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 547.95$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 28c | 378.92$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.77 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 51c | 365.16$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.79 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 27c | 242.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 51c | 234.55$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.68 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 230.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 18c | 199.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 23c | 181.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 168.73$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 15c | 155.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 155.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 19c | 134$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 20c | 100.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed05…9368backed No | 72c | 100.42$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 79c | 99.06$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 20c | 91.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…f557backed No | 54c | 88.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…031dbacked No | 22c | 77.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 16c | 67.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 39c | 62.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…b8aabacked No | 80c | 61.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…7eabbacked No | 49c | 58.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 41c | 54.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 51.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 34c | 47.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 45c | 35.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 31.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 43c | 30.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…555fbacked No | 41c | 29.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…6882backed Yes | 68c | 22.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd85e…de9ebacked No | 76c | 14.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.