Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 64°F or higher on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a8eb14739d310509ff2edea4f35a08d7341120a7f73fb89df064125218c3a3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed Yes | 64c | 1,410$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.15 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…5710backed Yes | 8c | 846.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 62c | 503.97$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 75c | 501.15$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.31 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 79c | 394.78$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.01 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…45ebbacked Yes | 25c | 362.2$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 317.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 33c | 299.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.98 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 277.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.74 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 29c | 269.55$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.82 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 19c | 191.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 44c | 188.55$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 46c | 166.07$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.29 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 33c | 137.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 29c | 136.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 19c | 136.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 21c | 123.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.06 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 66c | 121.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 26c | 121.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 27c | 111.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 26c | 107.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b5…326dbacked Yes | 22c | 104.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 18c | 99.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 67c | 99.31$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 67c | 98.45$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…d1d9backed Yes | 66c | 96.42$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 14c | 95.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 52c | 91.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 85.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 61c | 81.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 79.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 75c | 74.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…f557backed Yes | 66c | 73.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 56c | 73.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 78c | 72.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…5143backed Yes | 79c | 69.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 72c | 68.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…0b95backed No | 21c | 66.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 60c | 66.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 58c | 65.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 41c | 64.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed No | 36c | 62.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 63c | 60.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed No | 76c | 59.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…c277backed Yes | 34c | 59.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 66c | 57.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 33c | 56.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…696abacked Yes | 22c | 55.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 69c | 55.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b9…e5e8backed Yes | 69c | 53.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 26c | 53.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 66c | 53.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 67c | 52.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa5…92aebacked Yes | 23c | 52.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…7eabbacked Yes | 52c | 50.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 20c | 50.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 27c | 48.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 58c | 47.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…7bb4backed Yes | 24c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 38c | 45.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 38c | 45.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 39c | 45.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 43c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…5571backed Yes | 76c | 43.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d20…8770backed Yes | 68c | 43.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked Yes | 65c | 40.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x196c…2a0dbacked No | 44c | 40.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 73c | 39.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed No | 54c | 39.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 34c | 38.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 67c | 38.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 70c | 38.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 37c | 37.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 37.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…9326backed No | 66c | 37.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 46c | 35.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 75c | 32.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 40c | 32.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 76c | 30.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked No | 67c | 30.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed No | 77c | 29.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 39c | 28.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c38…1ea9backed No | 43c | 28.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 79c | 27.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed Yes | 65c | 26.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 75c | 25.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b60…558dbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…0fcbbacked Yes | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8d…f1e3backed No | 76c | 24.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 75c | 22.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 64c | 20.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed Yes | 69c | 19.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 69c | 19.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acb…1e38backed Yes | 65c | 19.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 64°F or higher on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on April 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.