TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 64°F or higher on April 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,587
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,295

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,587 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef6a…18e8backed Yes64c1,410$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.157360.3%44 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71d3…5710backed Yes8c846.89$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.163823.7%9 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes62c503.97$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.9417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca71…610bbacked No75c501.15$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.3110865.7%71 W · 37 L+13.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+33.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No79c394.78$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.0131542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x700b…45ebbacked Yes25c362.2$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.781338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-34.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes15c317.15$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.065,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed No33c299.98$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.9825175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No72c277.63$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.742,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No29c269.55$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.8271823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes19c191.46$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1331442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes44c188.55$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0216324.5%40 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No46c166.07$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.291,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No33c137.94$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.2834250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes29c136.38$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0142130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6973…b296backed Yes19c136.15$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0413728.5%39 W · 98 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No21c123.92$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.062,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes66c121.93$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.391,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes26c121.69$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0426834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes27c111.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8911833.1%39 W · 79 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes26c107.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.752,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b5…326dbacked Yes22c104.26$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.051741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed Yes18c99.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9855855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfced…03d9backed Yes67c99.31$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2910141.6%42 W · 59 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+82%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes67c98.45$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9125037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12e6…d1d9backed Yes66c96.42$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes14c95.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4454043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bdc…a0babacked No52c91.03$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.428068.8%55 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes15c85.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes61c81.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9913533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes18c79.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.422,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes15c75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.251,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51f6…9f18backed Yes75c74.31$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9614659.6%87 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeea3…f557backed Yes66c73.6$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.282157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No56c73.32$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2627167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes78c72.37$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4537644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8db7…5143backed Yes79c69.38$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8720%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6eb3…d405backed Yes72c68.29$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0210247.1%48 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…0b95backed No21c66.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534566.7%30 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d21…b569backed No60c66.53$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4614158.2%82 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ea…6523backed Yes58c65.36$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.874060%24 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+43.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes41c64.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.933243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed No36c62.72$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0147738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed Yes63c60.82$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2542049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No78c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.24,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc2…4837backed No76c59.7$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.332263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b07…c277backed Yes34c59.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.260%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes66c57.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4698236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes33c56.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.477126.8%19 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f6…696abacked Yes22c55.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.141010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-74.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes69c55.82$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.631836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x46b9…e5e8backed Yes69c53.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.251118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes26c53.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.847719.5%15 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes66c53.13$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0749750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes22c53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.669,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes67c52.74$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.173,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aa5…92aebacked Yes23c52.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.022623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc004…7eabbacked Yes52c50.77$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.421662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes20c50.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.121,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1337942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.527732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f88…da69backed Yes27c48.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0517949.2%88 W · 91 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes58c47.9$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8334934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6f7…7bb4backed Yes24c46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.044025%10 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No38c45.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3199571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc7…54abbacked No38c45.78$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3518650.5%94 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No39c45.24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4221440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes43c44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.921,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee1b…5571backed Yes76c43.75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.052821.4%6 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d20…8770backed Yes68c43.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.791154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6763…b14fbacked Yes65c40.84$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.432661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x196c…2a0dbacked No44c40.42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65df…6144backed Yes73c39.95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.196137.7%23 W · 38 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2995…8410backed No54c39.14$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1819632.7%64 W · 132 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No34c38.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7793837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…8ca0backed Yes67c38.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.767969.6%55 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9008…09f0backed Yes70c38.15$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8111939.5%47 W · 72 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No37c37.6$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.662,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c37.55$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.292,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44a3…9326backed No66c37.41$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.692070%14 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick64cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes46c35.95$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5439535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No75c32.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1262770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes40c32.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9790734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes76c30.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.111,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x1a2b…bf2abacked No67c30.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.976264.5%40 W · 22 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf4da…dfb5backed No77c29.31$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.746848.5%33 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No39c28.65$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5619059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c38…1ea9backed No43c28.56$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+134%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a41…2562backed Yes79c27.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.77055.7%39 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb2…14d6backed Yes65c26.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.047754.5%42 W · 35 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No75c25.82$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4533373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes47c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7934067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b60…558dbacked No73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.752576%19 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5867…0fcbbacked Yes80c24.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b8d…f1e3backed No76c24.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.863281.3%26 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick73cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes75c22.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.188229.3%24 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes64c20.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8293734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed Yes69c19.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4224370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes69c19.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.335362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1acb…1e38backed Yes65c19.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.491241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.