Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7535ca066d1e6b7559e6637ea49335c62c3aab762e5c99235626bdfe069aaaf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 17c | 697.68$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 75c | 588.79$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.07 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 399.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 79c | 321.6$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 240.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 6c | 213.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.71 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 20c | 204.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 73c | 203.46$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 22c | 176.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.41 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 70c | 164.54$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8c…7026backed No | 29c | 158.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 67c | 158.59$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 32c | 143.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 24c | 135.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.71 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…45ebbacked No | 27c | 134$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 130.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.33 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 23c | 130.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 9c | 129.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.93 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 73c | 126.58$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 44c | 119.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 10c | 118.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.92 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes | 74c | 117.89$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 42c | 116.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.79 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 80c | 110.47$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…997fbacked Yes | 80c | 110.26$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 69c | 108.04$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 78c | 100.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 55c | 100.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 56c | 99.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…431fbacked Yes | 54c | 99.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 79c | 99.15$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 46c | 95.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…7a0ebacked Yes | 77c | 94.77$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…f557backed No | 55c | 87.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 79c | 79.58$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…8b8ebacked No | 19c | 78.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 33c | 70.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 44c | 67.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 28c | 64.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 73c | 64.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…7eabbacked No | 57c | 56.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 73c | 55.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 74c | 50.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 28c | 48.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 51c | 48.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 76c | 46.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 24c | 46.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 48c | 41.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 76c | 41.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 77c | 39.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 39c | 38.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 66c | 37.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 52c | 36.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1211…2c42backed No | 50c | 29.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 53c | 28.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 78c | 26.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked Yes | 78c | 25.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b60…558dbacked Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…efd2backed Yes | 76c | 22.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5728…d2b2backed Yes | 77c | 22.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 68c | 20.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 77c | 20.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 76c | 20.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…01d5backed No | 76c | 19.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 76c | 19.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b8…bb4abacked Yes | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae71…9750backed No | 76c | 18.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 78c | 14.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 69c | 14.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 80c | 12.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e4…e43bbacked No | 79c | 12.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 64°F or higher on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.