Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9f7760189458f6dd27d3c499a1137d6a8fbd113b045959f237e6d65c6ad9a2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71d5…55f7backed Yes | 67c | 428.58$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.91 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 420.69$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.95 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 44c | 282.5$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.05 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 273.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed No | 55c | 250.84$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.88 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 246.87$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 231.18$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a57…fda1backed Yes | 40c | 214.95$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 62c | 207.48$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 39c | 192.26$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 53c | 190.75$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.31 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 181.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc88…b7eebacked Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 33c | 148.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 57c | 139.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 26c | 134.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Yes | 58c | 130$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…3af1backed Yes | 30c | 124.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 120.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 53c | 120.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked No | 60c | 115.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 44c | 107.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 95.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…7cf2backed Yes | 79c | 93.31$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed No | 57c | 90.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 50c | 83.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed No | 60c | 83.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 80.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 72c | 74.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 30c | 70.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 41c | 66.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 38c | 66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 70c | 65.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 61c | 60.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bc…e46bbacked No | 56c | 59.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 44c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 38c | 55.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f7…4bf0backed Yes | 34c | 54.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 24c | 52.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 43c | 50.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 43c | 50.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked Yes | 58c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 30c | 48.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 76c | 47.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed No | 42c | 46.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 70c | 46.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 22c | 46.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…dc43backed Yes | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 41.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 57c | 39.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed Yes | 42c | 38.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 55c | 37.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 39c | 36.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 64c | 34.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 44c | 33.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 43c | 32.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 76c | 31.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 39c | 31.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88a…cbfebacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 43c | 29.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…aa45backed No | 73c | 27.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…bcf1backed Yes | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 22.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes | 66c | 21.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed Yes | 75c | 20.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a1…a453backed Yes | 73c | 19.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 74c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 66c | 19.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 66c | 15.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.