Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75f4f1dcc2f3ac4e43fc37cc775da0bc0068e5aa5a0e8e29e77d9cbe703a24f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed No | 54c | 312.78$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.68 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 311.73$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d5…55f7backed Yes | 44c | 300.47$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed Yes | 46c | 250$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 56c | 241.02$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.21 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 61c | 240.22$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.38 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 235.92$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.09 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 220.73$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 42c | 195.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.57 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 194.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 176.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed No | 63c | 152.48$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 12c | 137.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 13c | 119.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 73c | 117.97$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 102.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…7cf2backed Yes | 74c | 98.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 35c | 98.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.62 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 96.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 64c | 95.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 40c | 80.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f7…4bf0backed Yes | 37c | 76.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…f35abacked Yes | 51c | 73.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 24 | 91.7%22 W · 2 L | +5.8wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x08eb…9ca4backed Yes | 68c | 71.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 61c | 70.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 34c | 69.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…83eabacked No | 57c | 69.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 55c | 61.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 39c | 61.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 52.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 39c | 48.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 59c | 47.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 43c | 47.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 64c | 46.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 39c | 39.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 62c | 38.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 62c | 38.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 68c | 37.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 37.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 37.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61ed…5f52backed No | 59c | 37.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38a…0411backed Yes | 39c | 36.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +195.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 40c | 35.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 67c | 34.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 50c | 34.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 57c | 29.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 59c | 28.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 62c | 28.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…a147backed Yes | 40c | 28.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +147%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 51c | 28.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 68c | 28.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 40c | 28.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed Yes | 76c | 28.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 42c | 28.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a6…c6febacked Yes | 41c | 26.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 74c | 26.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeac…2970backed No | 63c | 25.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 41c | 24.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 59c | 24.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed No | 60c | 23.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 45c | 23.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae4f…cde1backed No | 58c | 21.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 67c | 21.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 70c | 20.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…b228backed No | 71c | 17.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…41b6backed No | 58c | 17.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.