World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13c09a290b0ae9f72f6229f3d6546ba3daab9cb0e3a52f90f9f8e90f20e63f5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 15c | 493.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 44c | 378.39$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.06 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 371.94$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.07 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 60c | 331.17$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 51c | 190.2$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 79c | 188.22$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…9752backed No | 71c | 136.36$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 64c | 119.53$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 37c | 113.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8e…af43backed Yes | 46c | 101.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 30c | 88.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 58c | 73.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 68.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 45c | 64.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed Yes | 43c | 59.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed No | 53c | 54.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +158.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 66c | 43.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 43.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 55c | 39.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 38c | 37.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 52c | 36.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 57c | 34.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 79c | 34.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…47dabacked Yes | 44c | 32.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 33c | 32.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 28.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 65c | 28.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ce…7648backed No | 65c | 27.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 79c | 24.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…981cbacked No | 52c | 20.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 20.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C or below on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.