Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a235c22981ae566d86c4ceb47ce87c0efdc8a3c7e94b885f4cdc7b131a4af64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 54c | 946.49$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.02 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 4c | 827.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 65c | 552.89$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.54 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 54c | 523.55$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.81 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 514.17$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.11 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 38c | 428.59$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.12 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 55c | 272.55$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 266.07$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.53 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 79c | 253.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 52c | 232.02$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.66 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 201.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.96 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 79c | 194.83$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 42c | 193.31$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…43b6backed Yes | 14c | 192.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.96 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 46c | 192.42$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 58c | 182.16$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.13 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 55c | 177.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.23 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 22c | 174.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.64 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb46…9773backed No | 48c | 170.15$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 72cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 51c | 156.31$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.29 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 60c | 155.91$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 30c | 155.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.82 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…bf1abacked Yes | 20c | 147.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.22 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 16c | 142.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.39 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 39c | 141.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8082…d196backed Yes | 70c | 138.4$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 133.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 125.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed Yes | 52c | 122.08$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed No | 48c | 111.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…1252backed Yes | 52c | 107.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 60c | 107.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed Yes | 63c | 104.82$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10c8…826bbacked Yes | 46c | 101.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 40c | 100.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 40c | 96.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…070cbacked No | 60c | 96.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 58c | 95.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 24c | 94.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 90.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 23c | 86.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 83.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 18c | 82.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.64 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 23c | 80.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 55c | 79.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed Yes | 56c | 75.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11c3…2555backed No | 24c | 74.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 77c | 73.56$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 73.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 17c | 72.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 40c | 71.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 55c | 71.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 68c | 71.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 61c | 71.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…b228backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 43c | 69.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 62c | 68.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 40c | 66.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…64b6backed Yes | 24c | 61.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 65c | 61.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 28c | 60.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…01b9backed Yes | 53c | 54.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 62c | 54.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 54c | 54.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 54.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 48c | 51.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 76c | 51.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…2c0dbacked Yes | 21c | 50.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…4dc9backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 39c | 49.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 37c | 45.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 30c | 44.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeac…2970backed No | 55c | 43.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed No | 24c | 43.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 70c | 43.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 42.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 68c | 42.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 41c | 41.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 43c | 40.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 72c | 39.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 47c | 38.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b28…e3c6backed Yes | 54c | 38.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed No | 65c | 37.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 55c | 37.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 71c | 29.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked No | 35c | 29.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…c6dabacked No | 72c | 28.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 28.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.