Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31092e0d20677016959cdbfddc22416320c724545912dd7e99e3f88e445b67b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 43c | 2,790$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.68 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 57c | 2,342$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.28 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 2c | 1,382$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 488.91$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 77c | 253.4$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 251.98$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…0c35backed Yes | 6c | 234.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 10c | 230.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 153.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 60c | 150.28$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.47 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 44c | 138.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 38c | 126.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 126.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 44c | 115.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed No | 47c | 115.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 47c | 100.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed No | 61c | 97.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10c8…826bbacked Yes | 49c | 97.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed No | 70c | 97.04$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 34c | 93.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 52c | 92.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 47c | 86.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 66c | 75.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 70.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 37c | 69.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 66c | 67.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 43c | 64.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 69c | 61.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 56.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x51f5…2bf6backed Yes | 35c | 53.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 35c | 51.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…4dc9backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 65c | 48.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 44c | 47.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 66c | 46.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 44c | 46.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 55c | 45.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 74c | 44.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 25c | 44.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 37c | 42.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 45c | 41.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 46c | 41.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 46c | 41.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 36.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 35.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402d…5c07backed No | 57c | 33.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 57c | 33.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 57c | 33.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 38c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked No | 53c | 32.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 45c | 32.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d8…894bbacked Yes | 40c | 30.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…010bbacked No | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b28…e3c6backed Yes | 37c | 29.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 47c | 28.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 64c | 28.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 55c | 28.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 42c | 28.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 39c | 28.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 53c | 26.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34bc…ffa1backed No | 56c | 26.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8082…d196backed No | 66c | 24.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 59c | 24.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed No | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed No | 55c | 20.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 56c | 17.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 79c | 14.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.