Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93a9357570a6729df644c42f03653f6eddbe8ba756bf852c67588c3ce617915b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 31c | 3,050$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.07 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 70c | 2,761$1,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.3 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,357$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 4c | 536.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 484.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 3c | 452.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 24c | 206.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 204.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 184.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabc6…acb4backed Yes | 26c | 177.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked No | 70c | 157.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…4dc9backed Yes | 20c | 155.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 155.64$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 20c | 122.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 106.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 34c | 97.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 76c | 92.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed No | 70c | 83.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 81.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 20c | 80.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 17c | 72.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…6882backed Yes | 34c | 67.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 50.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 50.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…1774backed No | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 27c | 46.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d8…894bbacked Yes | 32c | 43.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5079…5988backed No | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…010bbacked No | 69c | 42.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…9126backed No | 79c | 42.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 30c | 41.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 39.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4880…ac33backed No | 69c | 35.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 74c | 32.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 73c | 26.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed No | 77c | 25.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8d…f1e3backed No | 79c | 24.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…b1b1backed No | 78c | 15.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 69c | 14.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed No | 76c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.