Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17d8267638ead972a6c659c1f31a0a9655a89e03301de7c6979934e984c33b3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47ed…e351backed No | 1c | 4,887$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…4aeebacked No | 44c | 1,773$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.66 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 9c | 1,681$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.66 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 17c | 676.86$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.07 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 40c | 478.86$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.37 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 72c | 331.86$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 328.73$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 321.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 301.9$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 8c | 298.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 30c | 267.82$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.12 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 55c | 260.8$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.32 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 248.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 12c | 227.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.89 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 39c | 212.01$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 12c | 204.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.3 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 17c | 195.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.57 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 172.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…bd14backed No | 16c | 171.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 55c | 156.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.41 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 141.01$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 10c | 134.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.41 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…b3a5backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 116.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 18c | 102.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 38c | 101.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…6882backed Yes | 26c | 98.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 15c | 98.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.63 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 13c | 98.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.43 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 16c | 96.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.64 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…5401backed Yes | 39c | 80.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 68c | 77.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 70c | 74.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 62c | 69.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 33c | 67.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 72c | 65.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 17c | 62.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 80c | 61.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 42c | 61.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 21c | 48.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked Yes | 32c | 47.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 45c | 44.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed No | 65c | 43.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 44c | 43.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…7bb5backed Yes | 47c | 42.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 67c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 31.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 76c | 31.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2a…0bf0backed Yes | 38c | 31.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…14a8backed Yes | 76c | 29.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 77c | 24.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48a3…5799backed Yes | 47c | 23.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 75c | 19.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 68c | 18.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…b6bebacked No | 57c | 17.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 69c | 14.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.