Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6fdf0d7eba19c4cef4d456302974df1df354ca91a41e2166da01528e3eec4ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 3c | 754.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 34c | 734.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945d…a5a0backed Yes | 3c | 396.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 69c | 352.95$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.55 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 46c | 272.5$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.82 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 199.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 69c | 171.97$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 43c | 159.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 147.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 52c | 133.91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 121.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 118.34$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 45c | 111.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 60c | 109.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Yes | 51c | 109.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 49c | 109.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 42c | 107.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 52c | 101.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 98.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 50c | 97.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 55c | 92.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 53c | 92.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 54c | 89.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…3ff3backed Yes | 55c | 86.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 48c | 78.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 51c | 77.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 36c | 77.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 73.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 71.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…f896backed Yes | 46c | 70.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 66c | 69.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 46c | 65.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 55c | 58.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 54c | 52.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39f2…b712backed No | 54c | 51.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 51.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 39c | 49.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 46c | 46.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f5…2bf6backed Yes | 42c | 44.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 62c | 38.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 38.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…128abacked No | 80c | 36.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x248d…3512backed No | 51c | 35.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 49c | 33.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 32.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 41c | 30.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 50c | 30.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 46c | 29.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed No | 72c | 29.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Yes | 55c | 28.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 46c | 27.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1b…a999backed Yes | 50c | 26.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…4698backed Yes | 40c | 26.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 59c | 24.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 63c | 24.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 64c | 23.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7405…2f5dbacked Yes | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d57…61eebacked No | 52c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 21.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 56c | 19.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 18.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 66c | 15.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.