Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88236bb6641beaa50aeb45fd1f4bc63d01a6a18f67a4b93bdd17837f3e674084
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 1c | 3,507$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 1c | 2,234$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e33…d6b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,068$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 2c | 599.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…9c69backed Yes | 2c | 576.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…0c35backed Yes | 3c | 387.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 379.12$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8e…aacbbacked Yes | 5c | 296.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945d…a5a0backed Yes | 5c | 255.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 252.26$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 71c | 231.92$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 29c | 204.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 25c | 199.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 184.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 173.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 160.23$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 147.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 17c | 135.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 116.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 80c | 109.53$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 29c | 101.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 27c | 99.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 28c | 95.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 24c | 93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 31c | 84.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 69c | 79.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 16c | 79.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…6882backed Yes | 29c | 77.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 80c | 66.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 24c | 65.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 60.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 21c | 57.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 29c | 55.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 27c | 53.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 33c | 50.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 26c | 48.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8f…492bbacked No | 78c | 45.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 74cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 33c | 42.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 80c | 33.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 74c | 33.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 27.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…7bb5backed No | 74c | 26.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 75c | 22.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 71c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa915…93c7backed No | 72c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 19.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 78c | 18.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…d9b8backed No | 80c | 16.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d09…6d08backed No | 77c | 16.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 15.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 68c | 15.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 77c | 15.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 78c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.