Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x548eab5ef95fa3f71fa491a1ab91c86b40b0b087b1e311373d04fc4a0c7e83b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 378.15$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.86 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 312$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 35c | 294.13$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.69 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 31c | 276.7$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.5 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 41c | 265.85$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.06 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 247.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 220.48$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa63…00e5backed No | 38c | 195.84$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 18c | 179.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.47 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked Yes | 25c | 152.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.29 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 62c | 149.58$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 45c | 133.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…01b6backed Yes | 32c | 131.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 32c | 130.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 80c | 123.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 26c | 116.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd597…9babbacked No | 75c | 116.23$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 15c | 112.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.73 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 21c | 107.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 24c | 105.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.25 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked No | 77c | 99.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 99.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes | 19c | 99.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.57 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 78c | 99.16$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked No | 12c | 97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 23c | 79.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 21c | 73.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 68.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 71c | 67.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 67c | 65.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 74c | 64.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 62c | 61.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 50c | 57.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 36c | 56.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…4b39backed Yes | 31c | 54.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 27c | 52.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 21c | 50.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 72c | 49.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 64c | 48.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked No | 25c | 48.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 64c | 47.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…db4dbacked Yes | 61c | 47.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 29c | 46.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 27c | 43.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 68c | 43.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 57c | 42.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…f068backed No | 29c | 40.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 35.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…9b6cbacked No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 37c | 31.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 80c | 31.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 70c | 29.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 72c | 25.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 63c | 19.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 79c | 14.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 73c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.