Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x515339470903cb7d464bc375bbee3fd00758000a17f3f0e70798d9fc78afbd84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1103…57e3backed No | 51c | 372.94$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.74 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa63…00e5backed Yes | 43c | 372.68$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 51c | 371.08$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.83 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 216.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de0…74febacked Yes | 49c | 204.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 52c | 190.17$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.28 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 45c | 183.57$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0339…d956backed Yes | 49c | 174.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7324…476ebacked Yes | 49c | 153.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fe…00bbbacked Yes | 49c | 152.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b1…98e0backed Yes | 49c | 152.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 151.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 51c | 139.85$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.53 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 33c | 137.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 39c | 131.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…1ad2backed Yes | 39c | 124.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc246…2454backed Yes | 49c | 111.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 62c | 96.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 89.07$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 29c | 87.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 61c | 82.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 33c | 75.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 74.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…c533backed No | 51c | 72.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d1…b57bbacked Yes | 50c | 67.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 65.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked Yes | 42c | 60.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 30c | 59.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 23c | 57.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…4b39backed Yes | 41c | 56.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 43c | 55.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…f690backed No | 70c | 53.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 44c | 51.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…9b6cbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 30c | 41.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 36c | 39.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ac…882bbacked Yes | 39c | 38.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49e2…994dbacked No | 70c | 38.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 51c | 37.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…71a0backed Yes | 41c | 37.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 30c | 37.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 38c | 36.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc6…31bdbacked Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 35.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 38c | 34.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 67c | 34.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 63c | 30.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 56c | 29.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 37c | 28.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 59c | 25.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 75c | 24.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 59c | 23.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 60c | 23.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 64c | 22.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61ed…5f52backed No | 64c | 21.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…8292backed No | 66c | 18.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.