Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68e58bd04cd862f804bb1f84c1aac084aa2cdc1f77fc70474956b2c63336269e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 699.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 6c | 504.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa63…00e5backed Yes | 26c | 392.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 6c | 310.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 74c | 269.28$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 76c | 254.9$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 14c | 211.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 79c | 193.2$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 192.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 19c | 147.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 34c | 136.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 17c | 102.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 19c | 99.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 20c | 99.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…c17fbacked Yes | 14c | 98.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +164.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 22c | 92.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 17c | 90.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 27c | 86.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 14c | 83.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 24c | 79.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 76c | 75.33$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 29c | 74.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…3af1backed Yes | 32c | 72.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…b590backed Yes | 20c | 69.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 76c | 65.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 17c | 62.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x65ac…882bbacked Yes | 20c | 52.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 49.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…c533backed No | 79c | 41.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 32.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 73c | 25.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 74c | 21.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 80c | 18.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.