Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d1f30e94b94560c027b7b944a3f60666f3f5cae33c095c1a7c7e1e08229532e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 13c | 1,983$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.89 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 635.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 24c | 516.66$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.47 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 505.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 378.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 13c | 328.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e8…2616backed No | 79c | 323.1$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 299.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 18c | 287.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 269.58$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 258.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 22c | 257.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 6c | 192.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 76c | 188.46$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 23c | 139.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…e4c0backed Yes | 16c | 132.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 28c | 124.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 10c | 123.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 11c | 122.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 29c | 106.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 104.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 16c | 88.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…33c9backed No | 78c | 79.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +28%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…3b6fbacked Yes | 30c | 76.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 26c | 68.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 25c | 64.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…555fbacked Yes | 21c | 58.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…031dbacked No | 76c | 56.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 75c | 52.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 29c | 49.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 31c | 48.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 69c | 43.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 36.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd9…055dbacked No | 76c | 26.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…9fb7backed No | 72c | 26.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07ae…2c8abacked No | 79c | 23.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 69c | 21.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77e6…0ae1backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 79c | 18.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd524…0f5abacked No | 79c | 17.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf55…d481backed No | 80c | 16.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 72c | 15.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…b94dbacked No | 78c | 15.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf2…442bbacked No | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 77c | 13.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 65°F or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 66-67°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.