Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x994b8e41219c10f0a64a3e765c46b602fb178d940c4f456ce27799648f0f0799
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c41…8ca1backed Yes | 24c | 772.7$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.46 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 731.59$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 72c | 542.33$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 434.32$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 33c | 351.56$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.08 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 334.81$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 29c | 323.48$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.55 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 299.28$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.84 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 5c | 292.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 14c | 283.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 36c | 232.6$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.15 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 217.15$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.11 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 80c | 210.69$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.4 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 69c | 192.29$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.3 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a03…0b88backed Yes | 12c | 190.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +168.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 169.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 19c | 166.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.23 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 153.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.97 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 15c | 149.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.1 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 21c | 141.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.56 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 18c | 116.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.61 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 75c | 106.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 19c | 102.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 12c | 99.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 19c | 94.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 15c | 90.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 28c | 89.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 79.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 65.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 19c | 59.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 64c | 58.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 37c | 57.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 36c | 57.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 36c | 54.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…555fbacked Yes | 53c | 53.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 72c | 50.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…0c7ebacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 47.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 66c | 43.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 45c | 42.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 70c | 38.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 68c | 35.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35de…4226backed No | 55c | 32.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 75c | 32.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 56c | 30.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 47c | 28.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 53c | 27.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 79c | 27.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 64c | 22.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…fdb9backed No | 79c | 18.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 70c | 16.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 15.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 78c | 13.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 65°F or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 66-67°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.