Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31a7c48f1140350764077f211c5cec0fd7f50138cefadcbe18456ea3cafb4deb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 361.9$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 295.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 274.8$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked No | 56c | 267.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.85 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a03…0b88backed Yes | 48c | 193.79$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +168.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 60c | 153.69$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 7c | 144.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 49c | 119.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 112.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 44c | 106.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 69c | 102.16$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 66c | 101.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 34c | 99.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 34c | 90.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…734ebacked No | 79c | 89.15$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 80.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 79.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 24c | 78.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 64c | 71.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 37c | 64.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 53c | 63.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 54c | 62.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 56c | 62.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…555fbacked Yes | 19c | 54.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…a0f0backed No | 53c | 52.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 43c | 47.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 37c | 45.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…308bbacked Yes | 40c | 43.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 24c | 43.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb4…5fd3backed Yes | 31c | 40.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 50c | 38.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 65c | 37.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 51c | 34.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 48c | 31.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 44c | 29.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 42c | 28.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 58c | 26.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…08d5backed No | 51c | 24.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 60c | 24.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 65c | 23.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae71…9750backed No | 65c | 22.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 77c | 19.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 18.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 63c | 17.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 65°F or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 66-67°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.