Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x710adc13d1e0f2c3ba682267718536591028c6acf3bf94da070f835f36720d5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 46c | 274.27$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.32 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8e…aacbbacked Yes | 4c | 254.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 208.83$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 44c | 147.65$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 9c | 144.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 142.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 45c | 138.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 56c | 116.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 25c | 114.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 108.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 57c | 89.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 80.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 45c | 69.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 46c | 68.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 60.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 59.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 56.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 50.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb0…2b36backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 47c | 48.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c5…d5d3backed No | 79c | 45.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 55c | 43.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…a0f0backed No | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…8039backed Yes | 58c | 41.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 79c | 39.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 38c | 37.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 44c | 37.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 78c | 37.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked Yes | 70c | 37.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 32c | 36.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 59c | 32.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 45c | 32.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 31.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed No | 53c | 28.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 40c | 24.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 65c | 22.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 21.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 67c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 58c | 18.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…308bbacked Yes | 57c | 17.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…70e1backed No | 79c | 17.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 69c | 15.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 69°F or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.