Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8937d9a11dbbf85ff8fe5ba7a864e83c7b80652ebed13b274c4eb70854b4ab5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 35c | 608.11$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.87 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 476.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 12c | 440.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 26c | 316.9$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.55 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 77c | 259.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 233.48$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 50c | 232.76$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.46 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 19c | 157.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.45 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 142.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.11 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 138.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.79 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 21c | 133.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 22c | 122.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.81 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 16c | 119.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.55 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…8039backed Yes | 37c | 101.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 101.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 18c | 101.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.41 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 78c | 87.68$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…3554backed Yes | 80c | 85.76$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 77.34$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 69.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 57.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 22c | 49.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…bcf1backed No | 44c | 42.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 51c | 41.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 40.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 69c | 37.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 42c | 35.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 71c | 34.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 33.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 43c | 31.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 64c | 29.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 67c | 28.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…128abacked No | 60c | 27.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 53c | 25.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 77c | 21.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64f2…c2a5backed No | 74c | 16.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 69°F or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.