Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c45c4202fa2c026f753ac0dd0ff6337f63df43ffdc9ba90cd57ed95c6e36527
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,266 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 1,745$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,607$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,507.49 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 26c | 1,001$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.71 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 67c | 432.38$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.95 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 425.72$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 370$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes | 9c | 342.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.39 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 16c | 313.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.05 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 10c | 250.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.02 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 13c | 218.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.16 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 5c | 215.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.07 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…932fbacked Yes | 16c | 200.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.03 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 51c | 200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.29 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 16c | 192.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.3 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 15c | 170$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.31 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 16c | 126$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.99 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 120.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 18c | 99.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…cd5dbacked Yes | 25c | 90.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 24c | 81.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 15c | 79.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.79 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 20c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…c602backed Yes | 20c | 65.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…89f9backed Yes | 16c | 63.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 19c | 58.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 19c | 53.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 24c | 46.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…ee48backed No | 48c | 46.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 24c | 41.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 36.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 79c | 34.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed No | 74c | 33.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7b…173bbacked No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…e3d7backed No | 75c | 20.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…df9bbacked No | 78c | 20.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 13.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.