Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e466ca075fa4aa848af3d13dbfd5ad09c9498f8cebdd915b442b401588f8023
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,727 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 715.38$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 80c | 699.25$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.33 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb89…9fdfbacked No | 58c | 680.44$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 34c | 306$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.87 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 13c | 290.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 53c | 198.15$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 48c | 189.37$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 12c | 166$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 30c | 139.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 37c | 125$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 123.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 120.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0823…3833backed Yes | 12c | 114.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 38c | 106.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8112…dfb4backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 93.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 48c | 90.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 14c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 53c | 86.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 22c | 85.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 60c | 84.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 37c | 73.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 43c | 70.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 54c | 64.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 46c | 59.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 48c | 59.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 69c | 57.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…c132backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 62c | 52.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 43c | 48.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 46c | 48.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 70c | 47.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked No | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 63c | 39.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 63c | 39.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 38.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 78c | 36.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…c602backed Yes | 40c | 34.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 40c | 32.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 72c | 32.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 39c | 27.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…e3babacked Yes | 56c | 23.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.