Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdea5064aaacb20160e93e8857b3303d3f691852aa345b766e6c6dec7fd3bea88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,032 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 61c | 2,945$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.86 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 63c | 1,873$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.86 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 40c | 1,800$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.65 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 42c | 1,349$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.15 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 31c | 943.84$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.02 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 818.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 73c | 810.04$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.54 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 59c | 761.91$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.16 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed No | 30c | 668.79$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.96 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 58c | 636.17$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.19 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 52c | 617.95$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.8 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 33c | 573.19$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.8 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 2c | 541$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 33c | 514.72$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.92 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 60c | 467.87$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 463.91$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 456.13$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 18c | 425.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 10c | 424$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.54 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 28c | 406.88$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.77 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 27c | 386.01$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.99 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 47c | 351.1$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.27 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 58c | 343.31$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.06 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 62c | 303.57$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.54 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 288.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.92 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…1745backed Yes | 56c | 274.19$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 33c | 272.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 9c | 264.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.17 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 255.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.81 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 56c | 253.59$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.3 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 13c | 237.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 237.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed No | 34c | 211.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes | 61c | 208.19$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.19 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 36c | 203.48$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.14 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 7c | 199.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.97 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 199.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 13c | 196.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.78 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0043…dadebacked Yes | 11c | 196.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.34 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 58c | 190.25$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 10c | 170.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.16 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 58c | 168.42$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 64c | 155.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed No | 42c | 155.64$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 50c | 151.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes | 28c | 149.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.35 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 144.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…2f58backed Yes | 61c | 140.44$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 139.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 132.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 41c | 132.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 48c | 130.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 129.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…577ebacked Yes | 31c | 128.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.14 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 47c | 122.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b4…05babacked Yes | 46c | 121.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 12c | 118.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.56 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 17c | 112.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2e…104fbacked Yes | 29c | 109$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 11c | 108$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.31 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 38c | 107$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 24c | 103.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 32c | 100.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.16 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c80…99fdbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…ded6backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.53 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed Yes | 18c | 99.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.84 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 41c | 97.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 44c | 89.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa258…6182backed Yes | 14c | 88.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 38c | 82.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…c872backed Yes | 15c | 81.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 36c | 80.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…b46cbacked No | 80c | 78.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 27c | 74.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 73.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…4492backed Yes | 38c | 73.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 70c | 71.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 50c | 64.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 50c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 79c | 59.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc389…6b32backed Yes | 80c | 57.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 22c | 57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc170…dfe9backed Yes | 34c | 55.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…637fbacked Yes | 33c | 54.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…bebabacked Yes | 52c | 51.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 61c | 51.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 26c | 51.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 53c | 50.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 32c | 49.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 47c | 48.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb64e…319abacked Yes | 36c | 47.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849b…3d07backed No | 24c | 47.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed Yes | 72c | 44.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 41c | 42.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 54°F or higher on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.