Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x404bb6f89608a223a705fa8e855f307401a8866753b20a40e150847d41047e54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0eb…f459backed Yes | 33c | 3,034$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 1,143$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…7f50backed No | 67c | 1,016$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3842…88f5backed No | 67c | 1,010$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8a…8424backed No | 67c | 1,008$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 7c | 678.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 76c | 646$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.01 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 3c | 521.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 453.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 10c | 412.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 7c | 405.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 8c | 400.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 10c | 378.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 17c | 370.71$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 360.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 319.53$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 25c | 307.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 33c | 300$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…9a02backed Yes | 34c | 294.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 16c | 271.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 33c | 267.35$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.77 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…fbdebacked Yes | 9c | 265.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 27c | 263.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 21c | 254.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 21c | 245$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 76c | 244.48$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 13c | 241.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 240.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 238.07$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb87…b085backed Yes | 42c | 237.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 35c | 230$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2e…104fbacked Yes | 14c | 228.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 220.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…bebabacked Yes | 12c | 193.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…d099backed Yes | 27c | 185.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 165.11$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…150bbacked Yes | 7c | 161.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 26c | 150.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Yes | 37c | 149.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 15c | 149.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 148.3$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 28c | 147$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c84…88f3backed Yes | 13c | 145.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 72c | 140.86$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 72c | 134$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 13c | 121$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes | 34c | 117.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 71c | 113.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 33c | 113$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 32c | 108$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 16c | 105.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 103$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…ded6backed Yes | 37c | 100.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c80…99fdbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…cf14backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 38c | 98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 13c | 97.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 24c | 94.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 66c | 94.94$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 62c | 94.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 71c | 91.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 85.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 38c | 83.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 24c | 83.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 66c | 79.02$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 64c | 75.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 26c | 72.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 62c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 69.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 43c | 69.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 66c | 66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 68c | 65.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 19c | 64.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bd…fb6cbacked No | 79c | 63.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 30c | 60.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 28c | 58.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 71c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 37c | 53.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 34c | 52.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 61c | 52.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4727…405dbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 32c | 49.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 25c | 46.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…877cbacked No | 70c | 44.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 42.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…d084backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 38.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 65c | 37.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 54°F or higher on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.