Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16420e6aa4f9253b2ce9094f703b9bb486bc140d85f7f1c0947910e418eb91cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,652 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked Yes | 41c | 405.31$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 8c | 343$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 284.88$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 222.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 21c | 182.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 165.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 44c | 155.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 54c | 151.81$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x776d…d13ebacked No | 52c | 134.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…84fbbacked Yes | 53c | 133.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 129.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.85 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 54c | 124.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 109.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 45c | 106.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 66c | 100.56$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…dd31backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 89.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 36c | 86.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 26c | 84.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 44c | 82.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 42c | 80.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x862e…0b2ebacked No | 51c | 80.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8a…9fb8backed No | 56c | 58.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…ec34backed Yes | 46c | 52.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb432…2bbfbacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…2db3backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 57c | 49.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 48c | 48.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 48c | 41.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 49c | 40.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…0822backed Yes | 57c | 40.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…d91bbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 38.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 32c | 38.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…4ddfbacked Yes | 73c | 36.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 56c | 30.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 51c | 29.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 60c | 26.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 60c | 21.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684f…cef7backed No | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45fe…f74ebacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.