Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e03b0bfed076579cdde1ec52f8f39c523396a99c81c79dca5ad5809970ed7ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,706 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x292b…9427backed Yes | 2c | 2,124$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,111$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…84fbbacked Yes | 22c | 387.17$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.45 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 16c | 344.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 16c | 283.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 236.45$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 199.99$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked No | 79c | 197.25$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 21c | 154.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 19c | 153$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked Yes | 20c | 152.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 149.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 24c | 143.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 12c | 131.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 21c | 129.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 127.32$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 41c | 127.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 19c | 123.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 119.32$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cda…9c9cbacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 11c | 109.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 107.73$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc680…6865backed Yes | 16c | 104.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 12c | 99.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 99.39$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 49c | 95.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 89.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 87.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf927…10bcbacked No | 78c | 86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 17c | 84.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…dd31backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 75.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 15c | 75.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 66.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 58c | 61.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 59c | 59.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 23c | 52.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…e1b6backed Yes | 41c | 52.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…ec41backed Yes | 45c | 41.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc117…0606backed Yes | 52c | 38.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x780c…0cd2backed Yes | 53c | 37.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 36.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 74c | 33.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 79c | 32.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 25.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…a3efbacked No | 80c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.