Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xead3443023a6ea1965034b803ee75b54e3b1e788a22c63e974bab408e0baf519
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,787 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed Yes | 2c | 568.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 7c | 381.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 8c | 295.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…298bbacked No | 71c | 281.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 279.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked Yes | 31c | 275.93$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 22c | 227.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 207.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 72c | 202.34$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 30c | 165$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 150.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 78c | 140$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed Yes | 25c | 134.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 14c | 128.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc7…7780backed No | 80c | 125.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 118.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 19c | 108.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 102.57$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9887…fe5cbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 25c | 90.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 20c | 84.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 72c | 76.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 28c | 63.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…010bbacked No | 78c | 58.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 26c | 51.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 29c | 51.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…ec41backed Yes | 29c | 45.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 44.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…0822backed Yes | 33c | 39.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d1…2715backed No | 80c | 35.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 74c | 31.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…c1bdbacked No | 78c | 26.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 70c | 23.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 22.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b9…0917backed No | 73c | 20.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 18.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 17.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…a9cabacked No | 75c | 14.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed No | 78c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.