TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,900

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,900 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes6c1,633$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.712,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9715…6f82backed Yes7c1,373$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.025440.7%22 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+110.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes7c1,201$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4935018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes5c1,104$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9996313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes6c1,071$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.62,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes7c1,002$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.118,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes7c659.89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5843021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x988e…bd82backed Yes6c525.41$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4212339%48 W · 75 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+2.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes3c441.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.031,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9bc…0894backed Yes5c431.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes7c419.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.341,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No62c412.63$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.473,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes7c349.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1199949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes16c344.86$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.781,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c315.66$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes15c312.41$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4215626.3%41 W · 115 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes42c298.19$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12511646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc448…085ebacked Yes4c290$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8121919.6%43 W · 176 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes8c287.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2985330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b7d…41d2backed Yes8c286.23$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7961…eaa8backed Yes29c273.94$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806973.9%51 W · 18 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+16.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No73c256.52$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.741,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1539810.8%43 W · 355 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes7c239$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9259818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No78c235.5$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9758349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaba5…9a02backed Yes43c231.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x29a5…fe58backed Yes36c231.41$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.384630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes5c219.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8835232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x953a…6646backed Yes46c218.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes10c200.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.447,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes5c197.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.596,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes12c187.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes21c177.12$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.674338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e76…95cdbacked Yes38c172.72$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.411936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes40c172$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.810650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes8c166.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7613215.9%21 W · 111 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes21c161$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.251,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc73d…565abacked Yes37c158.96$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.75139.2%20 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46b3…d3debacked Yes31c158.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6624414.3%35 W · 209 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c157.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.42,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…2b4abacked Yes8c153.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2914915.4%23 W · 126 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes35c151.16$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.631,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92f4…63d9backed Yes21c143.15$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.768130.9%25 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No64c139.7$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes10c130$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.619617.9%35 W · 161 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes9c130$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.71,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes20c130$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.136123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes26c129.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.51,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b0…e47bbacked Yes32c124.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes28c123.43$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.121,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes33c120$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.523,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No62c116.31$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.811,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes37c114$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7914834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3be1…79f3backed Yes17c113.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.441963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0370…48d3backed Yes11c110.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127552%39 W · 36 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe4f0…0bd2backed No62c102.63$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399250%46 W · 46 L-9.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364233.3%14 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe073…abb2backed Yes34c90$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.64427.3%12 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes48c87.52$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4242438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed No62c87.2$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4956434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes12c86.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2148331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes18c85.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.581,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes29c82.96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0277428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes30c82.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes38c82.11$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0263538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed No80c82$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.435465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes24c79.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4811337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e99…cb87backed Yes26c76.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201520%3 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-61.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bf1…71febacked Yes27c74.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b4…05babacked Yes14c72.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb30…f9f9backed Yes14c72.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No69c68.12$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.361,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes26c66.28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1721547.4%102 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes23c65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes29c57.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4122028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0b2…df36backed Yes18c55.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-68.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No65c53.93$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1386050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No67c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.754,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x025b…1793backed Yes25c46.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4712632.5%41 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe481…32a3backed Yes24c46.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113043.3%13 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+58.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes31c46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2630131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes22c45.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.234457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x736e…e8c2backed Yes36c39.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12b2…74b8backed No68c36.97$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.978968.5%61 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8110…c1babacked No68c35.22$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.438250%41 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No62c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.323547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes42c30.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.985,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.454037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa81b…f421backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb9…9481backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.14035%14 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedd7…5774backed Yes36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No72c29.7$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3237669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07e9…15dcbacked No67c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.263756.8%21 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ae4…bd41backed No75c22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.53345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No71c21.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1721272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked No60c21.43$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5720942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x479e…56cabacked No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.86446.9%30 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8638…2d36backed No66c18.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4412954.3%70 W · 59 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe23b…8d60backed No79c16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.364456.8%25 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc02…504dbacked No64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.636365.1%41 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.