TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,542

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,542 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x53bc…c6d1backed No15c1,286$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.91742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9bc…0894backed No8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed No67c955.69$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.6627047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No8c737.1$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4234618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes61c722.25$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.257146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…98c8backed No10c705.56$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.61333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes49c668.91$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.912729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No12c651.52$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1853925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaba5…9a02backed Yes57c529.64$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.642835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes62c524.81$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.9541845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No25c476.83$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3931341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb31e…6a43backed Yes46c430.94$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.945538.2%21 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No5c408.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.972,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c399.82$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.9817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No27c382.09$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.871,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes23c376.44$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.8635018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No14c361.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xf1fb…0255backed No10c310$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.87333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x883a…f76bbacked No66c302.97$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.964744.7%21 W · 26 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-22.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x988e…bd82backed No8c302$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1412339%48 W · 75 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+2.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No21c264.9$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.592,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No44c259.81$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8758349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ee7…9c56backed Yes78c257.77$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.771747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No58c247.11$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.311,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked No6c241.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4843021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No45c230.61$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5559440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…fe58backed Yes37c229.82$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.24630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No34c218.88$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No44c207.25$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.331,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes62c201.49$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4320534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5886050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes46c197.15$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.611,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7961…eaa8backed Yes53c187.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.496973.9%51 W · 18 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+16.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xce6d…a9cebacked Yes65c185.38$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.831145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d06…3beebacked No47c184$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No61c178.76$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.293,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3be1…79f3backed Yes50c178.23$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.81963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes31c174.52$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.0656434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe535…7d1bbacked No49c174$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes51c161$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.691,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes53c149.92$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.117338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes34c146.85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.2911146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No50c146.81$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.173,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No64c145.58$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.828,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7944…ee79backed Yes63c142.57$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.572240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33a4…acf1backed Yes70c140$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.05955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes36c137$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.2674338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes33c131.5$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.81,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes52c130.16$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6911038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No67c126.12$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8131868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes36c124.54$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.551,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No48c122.33$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.641,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes20c117.18$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.341,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes57c113.2$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.250648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked No26c111.23$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.816651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No22c110.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.854,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes63c110$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6614338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c109.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.252,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No41c109.14$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4531649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Yes37c104.51$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.896445.3%29 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f0…0bd2backed No67c104.45$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.989250%46 W · 46 L-9.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes53c104$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1459818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes39c101.55$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5515133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes28c101.37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3877428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674233.3%14 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4040438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes51c99.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4911145%50 W · 61 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes31c99.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.991,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6045…b2e7backed Yes42c99.47$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes66c96.65$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes33c92.95$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9530141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes72c92.94$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6457659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked No54c91.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506336.5%23 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes54c89.94$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5833139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa360…7440backed Yes55c87.71$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.14333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes37c87.26$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2642438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes43c83.75$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7563538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfca…84cdbacked Yes56c80.41$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.081050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes41c79.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.226236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7df…1d0dbacked Yes51c79.2$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.81250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf10…557ebacked No25c79.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes26c74.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5264333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No25c73.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.187,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c73.56$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.177,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6af…fc2fbacked No42c71.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303164.5%20 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5e8…4daebacked Yes53c70$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes40c70$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.816234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd9…bd75backed No37c68.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.151942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No44c68.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.051,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes20c65.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.738220.7%17 W · 65 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e99…cb87backed Yes55c63.67$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.871520%3 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-61.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41b0…e47bbacked Yes48c63.16$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.952250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c85…f14ebacked Yes53c63$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1014…b701backed Yes66c62.14$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.411442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes51c61$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8911337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x25a2…3b2fbacked No49c61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17cb…6d8bbacked Yes51c54$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe768…10efbacked Yes47c53.36$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3611355.8%63 W · 50 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed No47c53.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.