Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86415a83739be30416482caef3635c6de943f64cf80d8f38c510c7f1c16016dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,764 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x497d…febebacked Yes | 0c | 17,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 18c | 3,717$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.39 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 946.72$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 12c | 850.13$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 14c | 710.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 9c | 696.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 6c | 650$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 2c | 649.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 9c | 609.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 14c | 605.38$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 524.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 25c | 512.64$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.3 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed Yes | 8c | 450.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…a9cebacked Yes | 40c | 442.4$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 16c | 420$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 12c | 387$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 11c | 354$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 12c | 351.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 17c | 349.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 18c | 347$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 72c | 276.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.82 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…7105backed No | 77c | 262.44$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 43c | 258.11$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 13c | 250.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed Yes | 21c | 247$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…13f3backed Yes | 6c | 246.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 239.1$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…ee79backed Yes | 13c | 234.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 76c | 201$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 19c | 200.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 199.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 198.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be1…79f3backed No | 74c | 197.88$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6045…b2e7backed Yes | 21c | 194.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 9c | 192.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 13c | 186$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 10c | 181.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 28c | 180.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…c467backed Yes | 18c | 173.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 12c | 161.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 18c | 161$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 11c | 159.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 15c | 157.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…9109backed No | 78c | 157.03$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b4…05babacked Yes | 44c | 150.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 149.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b2…df36backed Yes | 45c | 146.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 18c | 140$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed Yes | 10c | 135$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 130.82$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…e304backed Yes | 19c | 129.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 129.83$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 76c | 128.4$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 11c | 123.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 119.91$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda76…c937backed Yes | 13c | 114$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…844fbacked Yes | 26c | 113.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8b…cd37backed Yes | 14c | 109$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa8…f60cbacked Yes | 15c | 107$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 68c | 107$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 14c | 105.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 11c | 104.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 15c | 101.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 29c | 99.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 12c | 96.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes | 11c | 93.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 16c | 93.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1411…6b02backed Yes | 17c | 89.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 18c | 89.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 12c | 86.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0865…3d2cbacked Yes | 16c | 83.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 83.3$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…29f3backed Yes | 17c | 82.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a7…a23cbacked Yes | 29c | 79.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 38c | 77.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d99…62a8backed No | 73c | 75.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 20c | 75.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 18c | 68.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3efd…b982backed Yes | 25c | 68.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 24c | 67.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…d85dbacked Yes | 16c | 64.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef08…efd3backed Yes | 18c | 63.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076f…dc12backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…637fbacked Yes | 46c | 58.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b714backed Yes | 20c | 57.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 71c | 57.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 21c | 54.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…d2f6backed Yes | 39c | 50.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 43c | 49.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.