Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5230a956e3ed77efb10070cbd374ccf43b8d98fc0c022e283b73ca3dd501b37f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 50c | 430.04$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.28 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 6c | 267.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 246.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.35 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 235.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 196.1$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.8 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 10c | 187.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf954…dec8backed Yes | 42c | 159.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 157.9$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.94 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 155.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 28c | 152.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.37 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 58c | 146.52$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 45c | 119.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 52c | 117.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 61c | 112.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes | 66c | 108.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed No | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 50c | 96.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 86.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 85.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 39c | 85.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 32c | 83.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 59c | 81.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 39c | 80.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 45c | 79.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 29c | 71.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 71.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 70c | 69.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…189ebacked No | 76c | 66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 78cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 74c | 65.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 65.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 27c | 64.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 43c | 62.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 68c | 58.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 57.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 69c | 57.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 60c | 53.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 29c | 53.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…4e32backed Yes | 67c | 51.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 44c | 49.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 70c | 49.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 70c | 48.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 34c | 46.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 43c | 43.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3633…6376backed No | 67c | 43.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 53c | 41.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 63c | 40.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…54c9backed Yes | 80c | 40.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…0133backed Yes | 74c | 39.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 38c | 37.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…847abacked Yes | 30c | 37.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 32c | 35.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 39c | 35.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…95fcbacked No | 68c | 34.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 41c | 32.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 61c | 31.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 46c | 30.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…b98abacked No | 68c | 28.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 70c | 27.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 74c | 27.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…d2f6backed Yes | 54c | 26.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 26.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 73c | 25.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 43c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 58c | 23.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 66c | 21.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…5d59backed Yes | 68c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…13e5backed Yes | 70c | 14.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.