Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x621623e4eabf5accc4fee35da94179c5f6872dca04fe56ec3624ffe112721089
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 21,570$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 20c | 615.35$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.52 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed Yes | 22c | 453.61$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 380$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 9c | 241.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 181.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…f5ecbacked Yes | 14c | 174.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 18c | 165.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 150.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 27c | 125.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 24c | 119.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 118.11$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 24c | 117.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 24c | 110.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 110.09$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 74c | 107.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 14c | 106.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 98.6$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 25c | 96.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 21c | 94.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 93.52$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 79c | 92.94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 92.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 16c | 90.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 20c | 80.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 77.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 21c | 76.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 74.27$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 22c | 72.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 25c | 72.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc1…2496backed Yes | 24c | 70.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 27c | 67.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 66.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 76c | 60.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 17c | 57.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 32c | 56.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 26c | 53.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 52.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 79c | 51.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 22c | 51.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…62b7backed No | 75c | 50.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 27c | 49.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 48.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 30c | 47.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 75c | 46.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 76c | 45.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 29c | 39.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 38.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 76c | 32.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 76c | 29.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ce…7648backed No | 78c | 29.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 28.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 78c | 27.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 72c | 26.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 77c | 24.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…1d38backed No | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 23.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 66c | 21.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 79c | 20.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 74c | 20.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 68c | 19.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 18.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…6822backed No | 79c | 18.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…9e9ebacked No | 79c | 14.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 39 | 87.2%34 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 14.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.