Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79dfe800f60efdbb7e7f11ae6c028e31b1820b017386591011020a642020c98e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed Yes | 1c | 2,785$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 316$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 36c | 298.59$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.35 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 52c | 183.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.18 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.65 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 7c | 156.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 66c | 152.02$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 62c | 142.85$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 57c | 120.85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 112.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 17c | 105.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 42c | 98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…977bbacked Yes | 43c | 97.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 55c | 96.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 93.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 80.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 34c | 74.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes | 46c | 73.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked Yes | 70c | 73.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 50c | 66.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 36c | 65.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 47c | 64.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 45c | 63.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed No | 62c | 62.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 59.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…2116backed No | 50c | 58.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…7a4ebacked Yes | 38c | 57.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 76c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed Yes | 33c | 55.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf113…0cc7backed Yes | 36c | 55.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 50c | 50.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 68c | 49.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 32c | 48.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0f…2823backed Yes | 42c | 46.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 55c | 44.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 42c | 43.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…4828backed Yes | 44c | 43.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed Yes | 33c | 42.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 45c | 42.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 41.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 38.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 38.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 36c | 38.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…760cbacked Yes | 39c | 36.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 39c | 35.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 41c | 35.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 42c | 33.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 44c | 33.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 76c | 32.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 44c | 32.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked Yes | 50c | 32.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 76c | 32.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 34c | 29.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 29.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 57c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee05…4447backed No | 43c | 24.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 43c | 23.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…4957backed Yes | 55c | 21.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 62c | 21.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…a939backed No | 62c | 21.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…c246backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed No | 57c | 19.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 18.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 64c | 18.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 65c | 17.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 72c | 13.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.