Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82551e641ae599607acd32c3c24f880f8dbb661c6b55bf381e489eef106a4031
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 30c | 382.75$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.93 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 344.88$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.94 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 47c | 304.65$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.43 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 288.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.25 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 18c | 281.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 609 | 21.8%133 W · 476 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 246.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 17c | 218.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.45 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed Yes | 18c | 215.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.01 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 143.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.68 | 1,515 | 15.4%234 W · 1,281 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 12c | 142.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 10c | 137.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.48 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 11c | 130.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.15 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 121.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 13c | 103.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.63 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 18c | 100.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 12c | 99.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.98 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 23c | 99.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 1,440 | 27.8%400 W · 1,040 L | +75.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 14c | 99.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked Yes | 15c | 98.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 27c | 95.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 13c | 88.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 959 | 19.7%189 W · 770 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 81.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc834…eb1abacked Yes | 17c | 80.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +481.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 53c | 78.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 69.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…2230backed Yes | 77c | 66.87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…85f4backed Yes | 16c | 66.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…da13backed Yes | 22c | 62.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…53c7backed Yes | 24c | 49.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4811…be32backed No | 72c | 35.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 69c | 28.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 79c | 27.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 69c | 23.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 213 | 31.5%67 W · 146 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 78c | 23.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 18.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.