Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x987fadee13741a331deba3148602b322e0612020c042b0eb1b9be1f178e99441
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,783 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce45…aa7bbacked No | 4c | 1,330$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 67c | 479.94$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.09 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 455.42$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 11c | 404.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 29c | 403.97$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.75 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 299.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 56c | 257.16$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.8 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 246$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 214.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 43c | 214$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.94 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 49c | 203$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 62c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 39c | 141.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 133.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 8c | 129.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 62c | 120.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 27c | 115.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 11c | 115.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 70c | 113.54$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…2793backed Yes | 31c | 97.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef7…d842backed Yes | 46c | 86.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 71c | 81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 71c | 80.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 40c | 80.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 78.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 57c | 78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 31c | 76.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 44c | 76.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 27c | 75.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 74.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 68.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 78c | 67.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 30c | 65.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 79c | 64.16$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 53c | 62.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 71c | 58.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 69c | 57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 49c | 56.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed Yes | 24c | 53.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 59c | 51.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 55c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 58c | 50.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 25c | 46.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 46.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 27c | 44.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 39c | 42.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdb65…cf36backed Yes | 29c | 41.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 71c | 41.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…89edbacked Yes | 33c | 39.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…2a45backed Yes | 36c | 39.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 45c | 33.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 67c | 33.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed No | 44c | 32.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 78c | 30.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 45c | 30.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 61c | 29.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…d4aabacked No | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 36c | 28.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 35c | 28.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…251abacked Yes | 42c | 27.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 68c | 26.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…5d51backed No | 69c | 26.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 67c | 26.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9575…0d20backed No | 59c | 23.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 73c | 23.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 55c | 22.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed No | 70c | 21.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 59c | 21.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 49°F or below on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.