Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8eb95eb70ce37f1b07846577226c88d066a71990e9e12788d08d9f0eec13076
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 496.57$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 425.45$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd491…60f0backed Yes | 28c | 406$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71de…57f0backed No | 72c | 406$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 64c | 342.01$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.7 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 37c | 331.88$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.01 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 62c | 322.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.56 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 32c | 314.12$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 36c | 299.96$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.99 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 226.33$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 35c | 214$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 73c | 202.55$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 184.34$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 68c | 183.11$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 46c | 181.81$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.53 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 34c | 160.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 27c | 156.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 22c | 115.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 36c | 107.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 61c | 107.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 66c | 105.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 65c | 99.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 97.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 62c | 95.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 61c | 93.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1772…1ba2backed Yes | 49c | 92.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 34c | 89.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b156backed Yes | 36c | 82.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 39c | 77.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 67.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed Yes | 37c | 66.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 60c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 36c | 66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…89edbacked Yes | 27c | 58.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e4…eec0backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 57.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 60c | 53.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 67c | 48.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 67c | 44.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 41c | 43.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 59c | 42.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 59c | 42.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…983abacked Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 37c | 40.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 35c | 40.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01fc…498abacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…9e9ebacked No | 69c | 36.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 39 | 87.2%34 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…a14ebacked No | 69c | 36.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…5d51backed No | 75c | 33.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…9ea3backed No | 73c | 33.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 75c | 31.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 65c | 30.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 54c | 30.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 35c | 29.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 35c | 29.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 79c | 28.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…e7acbacked Yes | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 69c | 23.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…f095backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c36…08f5backed No | 66c | 22.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 68c | 22.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb473…6931backed No | 57c | 19.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 63c | 18.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…9e55backed No | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…4f99backed No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…d4aabacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 60c | 17.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 57c | 17.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…8158backed No | 69c | 17.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb20e…58cebacked No | 68c | 16.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9575…0d20backed No | 63c | 15.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…f70abacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 49°F or below on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.