TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,772
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,579

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,772 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes35c496.57$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.188,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c425.45$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd491…60f0backed Yes28c406$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71de…57f0backed No72c406$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No64c342.01$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.791967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes37c331.88$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.0116738.9%65 W · 102 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No62c322.52$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.562,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes32c314.12$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.881,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes36c299.96$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9943238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No65c226.33$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.762,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes35c214$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.261,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No73c202.55$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.8432157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No66c184.34$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.81,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed No68c183.11$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.1115155.6%84 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes46c181.81$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.53869.3%8 W · 78 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-41%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes34c160.59$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.959626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes27c156.92$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.525725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes12c130$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes22c115.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.351,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa785…acb6backed Yes36c107.27$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.637727.3%21 W · 56 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-27.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No61c107.15$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4186050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No66c105.19$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.371,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cde…476ebacked Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6916336.2%59 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x720a…0a49backed No65c99.49$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6211878.8%93 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes40c97.23$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.057,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No62c95.55$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.531170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x46b3…d3debacked Yes21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024414.3%35 W · 209 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No61c93.75$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0232652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1772…1ba2backed Yes49c92.51$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No66c90$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5552571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes34c89.85$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.81,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1a3…b156backed Yes36c82.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes38c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1511128.8%32 W · 79 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes39c77.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3049941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes30c67.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6390…9bf0backed Yes37c66.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255154.9%28 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5504…665dbacked No60c66$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.410055%55 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes36c66$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7622728.6%65 W · 162 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98f7…a036backed Yes31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.893630.6%11 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe7…89edbacked Yes27c58.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e4…eec0backed Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No68c57.03$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No70c57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.954143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No60c53.69$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4841767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.59520%19 W · 76 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.566735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.749547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cab…7489backed No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4410371.8%74 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes39c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.353,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No67c48.51$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.197375.3%55 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34ab…4e36backed No67c44.66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6619772.6%143 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79b9…7d93backed Yes34c44.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158431%26 W · 58 L+0.3wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes41c43.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1833839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No59c42.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.351,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8638…2d36backed No59c42.09$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0912954.3%70 W · 59 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x685e…983abacked Yes35c42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.862445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes37c40.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes35c40.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.16833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01fc…498abacked Yes40c37.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd72d…9e9ebacked No69c36.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.453987.2%34 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick73cpaid+18.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe549…a14ebacked No69c36.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.371586.7%13 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick71cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a96…5d51backed No75c33.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.342352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ccf…9ea3backed No73c33.03$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.922763%17 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes32c32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1240741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No75c31.09$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.851,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6de1…5301backed No65c30.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.76985.5%59 W · 10 L+10.0wins+0.14per pick71cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xeae6…6dd3backed No54c30.48$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.024757.4%27 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9548672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.64346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.621333.8%72 W · 141 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed Yes35c29.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.495129.4%15 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x060c…9352backed Yes35c29.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.169133%30 W · 61 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5be9…bf5cbacked No70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.574757.4%27 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No79c28.48$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9852245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2917…e7acbacked Yes46c26.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x279e…5994backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a39…acc7backed No69c23.37$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.279160.4%55 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5f…867dbacked No65c23.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0711449.1%56 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce0…f095backed No66c22.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.732889.3%25 W · 3 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick74cpaid+21.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8c36…08f5backed No66c22.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.581866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0eb…a7d8backed No68c22.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.25874.1%43 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8531567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb473…6931backed No57c19.76$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.451020%2 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-65.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No63c18.96$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0540777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8abc…9e55backed No64c18.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.754872.9%35 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick73cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5339…4f99backed No66c18.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.183775.7%28 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x515f…a606backed No60c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.217553.1%93 W · 82 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f96…d4aabacked No60c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.22860.7%17 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x775c…28a9backed No60c17.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.28964%57 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f7…fd31backed No57c17.88$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6912535.2%44 W · 81 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b4…8158backed No69c17.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.51560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb20e…58cebacked No68c16.14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.142286.4%19 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick72cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9575…0d20backed No63c15.94$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d93…f70abacked No64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.