Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3e333dfaeacfa5c867f9de1ee129dcc91c17ef73822b40d99f0c0457d2d70a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,980 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 1,182$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.54 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 15c | 749.98$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 12c | 583.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 564.57$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…372fbacked Yes | 16c | 500$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.63 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 14c | 450.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 7c | 351.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 10c | 309.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 264.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 246$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 9c | 214$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 209.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 18c | 198.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 10c | 198.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 22c | 190.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 10c | 183.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 9c | 138.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b3…73aebacked Yes | 9c | 116.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 21c | 110.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 38c | 102.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 93.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 91.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 64.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed Yes | 16c | 64.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 29c | 51.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 70c | 33.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 32.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…b67cbacked No | 76c | 22.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 54c | 20.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 49°F or below on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.