Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x095674ec86e479653b78d31735743b5bc8be1052f6fc84d9d081e6941a7155c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,325 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ec0…ae7dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,312$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 10c | 575.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 46c | 299.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.42 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 284.01$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 77c | 245.24$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 26c | 241$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 25c | 240$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 42c | 199.6$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 176.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 28c | 163.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 155$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 143.51$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 63c | 139.68$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 14c | 137.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 42c | 135.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 119.81$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 61c | 114.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 23c | 111.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 107.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 27c | 107.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 36c | 106.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 38c | 105$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 104.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 102.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 28c | 98.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 32c | 95.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 45c | 93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 90.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a84…e23abacked Yes | 22c | 76.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…251abacked Yes | 31c | 74.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 63c | 68.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 24c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 27c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 65c | 52.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0d…ff64backed Yes | 26c | 47.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 30c | 44.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 53c | 42.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 76c | 42.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…6104backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 29c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 53c | 37.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 35.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…023abacked No | 55c | 34.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 66c | 32.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 67c | 31.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…957ebacked Yes | 32c | 31.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 31.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…9065backed Yes | 42c | 31.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6866…6725backed Yes | 39c | 31.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 70c | 30.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9575…0d20backed No | 68c | 30.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b4…d01dbacked No | 74c | 27.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 63cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…eb16backed Yes | 38c | 26.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b714backed No | 62c | 23.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 63c | 22.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 74c | 21.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…769bbacked No | 74c | 21.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 60c | 19.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 74c | 17.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…bb68backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 65c | 16.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 72c | 16.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.