Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01a6b228774112ddf505ce616dcff5c9b0c9f18abbcfa81efc8bb430155755c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 55c | 1,570$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.82 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 846$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 15c | 837.12$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.66 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…0ab4backed Yes | 78c | 643.56$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.82 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 21c | 635.75$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.88 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 69c | 501.21$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 468.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 75c | 437.92$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.52 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked No | 29c | 428.49$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.02 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 388.66$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.02 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 31c | 328.53$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.36 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 27c | 302.02$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.28 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 75c | 291.45$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 7c | 284.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 20c | 280$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a9…d0e4backed Yes | 69c | 202.02$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 45c | 200$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.75 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 50c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 16c | 198.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed No | 58c | 154.09$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 144.65$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 43c | 140.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 20c | 130.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.03 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 70c | 123.17$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed No | 16c | 122.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 17c | 117.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 17c | 117.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 109.83$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 80c | 98.52$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 19c | 98.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 75c | 97.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 97.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…932fbacked Yes | 19c | 95.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.73 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 86.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 54c | 84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 25c | 82.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 36c | 81.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ad…bab0backed Yes | 30c | 81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…2342backed No | 72c | 78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 18c | 72.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.06 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 34c | 70.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 18c | 65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 64.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 26c | 60.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 40c | 59.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed Yes | 19c | 59.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 50c | 54.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 20c | 54.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 20c | 54.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 37c | 53.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed No | 67c | 52.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 51.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 50.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 21c | 48.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…544fbacked No | 41c | 46.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 27c | 44.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9575…0d20backed No | 54c | 42.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 63c | 37.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 34.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked No | 35c | 34.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 63c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 47c | 32.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 42c | 31.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b04…8d5bbacked No | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b4…d01dbacked Yes | 69c | 29.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 63cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…7f5abacked No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked No | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…983abacked No | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 45c | 22.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…6221backed No | 55c | 20.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed No | 69c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…bb68backed No | 70c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 54c | 18.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 74c | 16.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…f77dbacked No | 77c | 13.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.