Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaface54b3b15ee50bb8c91b309864fe3ad780e4bbf17d960f63397bfd01be7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,304 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 1,200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 633.63$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 540.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad92…af55backed Yes | 2c | 497.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a4…ced4backed Yes | 4c | 349.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 331.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 320.65$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.87 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 25c | 239.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 18c | 201.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 201.4$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 179.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 132$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 114.97$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…513dbacked No | 79c | 110.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 19c | 104.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c28…73a4backed No | 78c | 96.46$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 96.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 76c | 90.35$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…2793backed Yes | 34c | 88.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 85.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…983abacked Yes | 18c | 79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…18d2backed Yes | 27c | 72.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 28c | 70.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 24c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 24c | 64.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 61.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 17c | 59.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 18c | 54.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…d084backed Yes | 22c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a84…e23abacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0d…ff64backed Yes | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…2342backed No | 78c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…251abacked Yes | 29c | 35.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 73c | 29.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa685…c2b3backed No | 78c | 25.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 76c | 24.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…e799backed No | 78c | 24.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 78c | 23.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…769bbacked No | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 74c | 21.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7e…96d0backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 76c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 79c | 15.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 79c | 15.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 78c | 13.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.