Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24f0b0c473c97480cc5159dccca82b6c7e0e13a29aaf28e7b12de395d4cd3606
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 1,070$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 16c | 362.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 267.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 208.04$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 181.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 148.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 142.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 128.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 16c | 128.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 17c | 123.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 19c | 122.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 76c | 121.23$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 113.01$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 30c | 113.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 20c | 110.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 75c | 109.78$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 23c | 105.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 98.56$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 95.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 30c | 83.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 71c | 77.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 16c | 74.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 68.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 72c | 68.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 70c | 66.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 24c | 59.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 28c | 58.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 24c | 55.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 18c | 54.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 70c | 53.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 28c | 49.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 22c | 49.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 26c | 48.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…13e5backed Yes | 26c | 43.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 76c | 37.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 80c | 36.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 75c | 30.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 71c | 27.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac4…9966backed No | 80c | 27.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 74c | 26.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 80c | 25.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 23.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 68c | 21.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed No | 73c | 20.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…6779backed No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 80c | 17.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 15.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 15.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbadc…89b4backed No | 74c | 13.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.