Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc48240e9a8b30f6c031044fd68cc5c018e41d9317a09a766ccb4cafda58f6a83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 253.24$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 213.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 184.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.96 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 170.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.54 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 20c | 152.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 41c | 124.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 32c | 115.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 109.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 95.31$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 93.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 79c | 88.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 38c | 83.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 47c | 81.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 79.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 79.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 25c | 74.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 62c | 72.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 49c | 69.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 63c | 67.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 31c | 65.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 26c | 61.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…bd41backed No | 51c | 61.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 37c | 57.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 54c | 55.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…5fdcbacked Yes | 46c | 53.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 27c | 52.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 76c | 49.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb6…4a6dbacked Yes | 77c | 49.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d56…92e6backed Yes | 38c | 48.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 30c | 47.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 41.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 36c | 38.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 36.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 34.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…6d81backed Yes | 70c | 34.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 77c | 29.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…6779backed No | 65c | 28.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 51c | 27.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 77c | 25.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…70f0backed Yes | 75c | 22.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…13e5backed Yes | 57c | 20.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 68c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…05a3backed No | 73c | 19.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 77c | 19.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 75c | 18.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 68c | 17.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 67c | 17.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 78c | 16.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 69c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed Yes | 78c | 13.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.