Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f3972df7f58f884f0fb01c4cadee99aebef5f8ed729ccd33232cf1efa1f038d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 491.5$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 447.1$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.12 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 344.28$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 277.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 25c | 264.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 250.01$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 8c | 213.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649e…fd6abacked Yes | 49c | 163.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d56…92e6backed Yes | 27c | 139.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed Yes | 24c | 116.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 25c | 116.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 113.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 72c | 107.7$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 24c | 98.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 76c | 94.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 91.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 78c | 90.01$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 22c | 88.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 85.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 17c | 83.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 80.26$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 31c | 74.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 69.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 68c | 67.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 71c | 67.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…c585backed Yes | 21c | 62.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…f5ecbacked Yes | 30c | 62.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd19b…d722backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 32c | 57.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 46c | 53.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 53.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa19b…3e59backed Yes | 30c | 52.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 26c | 52.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 47.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 41.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 26c | 40.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…dd39backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 32c | 37.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 33.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 30.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 26.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 79c | 25.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 24.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 23.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 75c | 23.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 71c | 21.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed No | 76c | 20.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 79c | 20.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked No | 79c | 20.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…05a3backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 79c | 17.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 58c | 17.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 76c | 15.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 15.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 78c | 14.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.