TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,784
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,613

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,784 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 247 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes51c1,378$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.457146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes54c1,043$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.1411146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No17c866.25$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.9357044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes44c858.6$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.236,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes51c840.7$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.2710120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No38c673.97$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.128551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes51c648.53$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.341,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No45c641$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.8686050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes67c625.33$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.481,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb23b…503fbacked No43c608.51$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.542227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-51%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes54c551.14$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.142729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed No6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3028718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b39…22f7backed No5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256319%12 W · 51 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-56.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1181…030dbacked No64c478.49$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.411361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No4c473.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.911,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No45c462.44$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.6858349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No28c458.18$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.9435323.2%82 W · 271 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No10c455.58$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0336819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes45c445$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24517135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No4c436.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.312,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No31c433.05$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9928737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c405.11$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.0317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No51c399.21$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.874,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes52c369.75$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.641,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes25c337.06$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.4335018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No66c289.57$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.41,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb732…108dbacked Yes34c287.85$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.121457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f57…c3acbacked No52c268.4$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.267946.8%37 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdf2…0b9abacked Yes57c264.17$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.171464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes58c254$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.5933139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc8…fa26backed No40c234.13$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes30c233.92$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.325050%25 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked No40c222.51$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2748331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No72c220.26$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.778,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01eb…8a7bbacked Yes47c209.48$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.731435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes58c208.14$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.4217338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes56c200.63$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.3732444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes32c200$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13611515.7%18 W · 97 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed No6c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.982828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No21c196.48$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.021,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No48c192.18$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6519152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes48c189.37$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.571,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc575…d68ebacked Yes61c179.98$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.19862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes74c174.83$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4231341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No59c174.54$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.473,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdf5…d359backed Yes58c170$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a6a…3fc8backed No45c169$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes25c166.63$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.0734617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…63adbacked No19c164.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.35812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No46c160$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.991,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff9b…6a02backed Yes19c157.89$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.8915834.2%54 W · 104 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5374…d802backed Yes25c157$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.983125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d12…1167backed No44c155.55$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d84…e35cbacked No46c155$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes58c153$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes53c150.22$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704623.9%11 W · 35 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-46.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No7c149.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.552245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes31c143.72$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.9122028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No72c143.55$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.572,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee5e…7f1cbacked No10c137.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.11315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-60.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed No61c136.05$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4416832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes50c133.95$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.057,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9723…5bdebacked Yes48c126.41$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.413435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No64c123.72$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6631868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes25c120.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.3585330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No38c119.4$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.97,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc970…e315backed No57c118.09$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.776553.8%35 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37a9…3ac2backed Yes47c112.58$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.581464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+56.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes42c112.17$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.068762.1%54 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa77c…ddccbacked No57c111.28$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.94616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.41per pick57cpaid-77.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0ae4…bd41backed Yes56c110.73$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.733345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes47c110.02$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5264333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes59c108.28$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2235465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes28c105$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.451,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1203…3947backed No43c104.47$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6215639.7%62 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…3fcebacked Yes77c103.18$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.18540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-46.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes25c101.9$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.023,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes45c101.85$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1363538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6440…85e2backed No44c101.31$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b38…2458backed No46c101$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.46560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No74c100.85$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7541070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42f8…f96fbacked Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492638.5%10 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+56.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4612932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6241046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x025b…1793backed No25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2512632.5%41 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ce7…741cbacked No44c99.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes34c99.98$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.993333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc73d…565abacked Yes41c97.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.635139.2%20 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x040a…118dbacked Yes59c97.38$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.41250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff69…16b5backed No40c97.11$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.093324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes60c96.47$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes59c95.42$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3711646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9a7…8a4dbacked Yes52c95.19$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.691729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No48c90.4$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.993,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9e7…666abacked No43c90$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.850%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes44c89.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.974235.7%15 W · 27 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2584…030abacked Yes56c89.45$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.45850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.