Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bf1383415cbac0b2859862a86adf161cd2afc1941556ba83b40825c8921d59d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 247 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 51c | 1,378$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.45 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 54c | 1,043$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.14 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 17c | 866.25$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.93 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 858.6$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 51c | 840.7$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.27 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 38c | 673.97$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.12 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 51c | 648.53$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.34 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 45c | 641$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.86 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 67c | 625.33$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.48 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 43c | 608.51$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.54 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes | 54c | 551.14$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.14 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…030dbacked No | 64c | 478.49$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 4c | 473.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 45c | 462.44$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.68 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 28c | 458.18$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.94 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 10c | 455.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 45c | 445$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 4c | 436.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 31c | 433.05$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 405.11$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 399.21$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 52c | 369.75$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.64 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 25c | 337.06$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.43 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 289.57$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.4 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…108dbacked Yes | 34c | 287.85$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked No | 52c | 268.4$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.26 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf2…0b9abacked Yes | 57c | 264.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.17 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 58c | 254$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.59 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc8…fa26backed No | 40c | 234.13$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes | 30c | 233.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.32 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 40c | 222.51$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.27 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 220.26$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…8a7bbacked Yes | 47c | 209.48$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.73 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 58c | 208.14$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.42 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 56c | 200.63$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.37 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed No | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 21c | 196.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 48c | 192.18$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 48c | 189.37$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.57 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc575…d68ebacked Yes | 61c | 179.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 74c | 174.83$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 174.54$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…d359backed Yes | 58c | 170$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6a…3fc8backed No | 45c | 169$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 25c | 166.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.07 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…63adbacked No | 19c | 164.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 160$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…d802backed Yes | 25c | 157$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.98 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d12…1167backed No | 44c | 155.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…e35cbacked No | 46c | 155$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 58c | 153$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 53c | 150.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 7c | 149.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 31c | 143.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.91 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 143.55$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.57 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…7f1cbacked No | 10c | 137.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 61c | 136.05$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 50c | 133.95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9723…5bdebacked Yes | 48c | 126.41$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 64c | 123.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 25c | 120.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.35 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 119.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 57c | 118.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a9…3ac2backed Yes | 47c | 112.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 42c | 112.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…ddccbacked No | 57c | 111.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.41per pick | 57cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…bd41backed Yes | 56c | 110.73$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 47c | 110.02$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 59c | 108.28$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 105$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.45 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 43c | 104.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…3fcebacked Yes | 77c | 103.18$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 101.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 45c | 101.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6440…85e2backed No | 44c | 101.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b38…2458backed No | 46c | 101$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 74c | 100.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…f96fbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce7…741cbacked No | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 41c | 97.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x040a…118dbacked Yes | 59c | 97.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed No | 40c | 97.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 60c | 96.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 59c | 95.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…8a4dbacked Yes | 52c | 95.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 48c | 90.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e7…666abacked No | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 44c | 89.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2584…030abacked Yes | 56c | 89.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.