TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,845
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,062

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,845 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcc79…3edcbacked Yes32c3,035$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bad…b337backed Yes1c2,225$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9432310.5%34 W · 289 L+15.6wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes2c1,581$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7196313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes5c1,530$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.562,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec6…857abacked No68c1,465$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b3…31eebacked No68c1,460$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes4c1,062$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.582,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes1c999.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes52c820.37$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.9510120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes46c807.97$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.146,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes13c775.71$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9548331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c742.9$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.0817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes14c728.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.648,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes6c701.7$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.111,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb347…a115backed Yes2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211041.8%46 W · 64 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked No27c548.7$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.4935018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes16c542.5$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3241845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2528718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes12c477.86$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4235323.2%82 W · 271 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No67c408.07$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.684,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes26c405.88$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3430046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes4c400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.257044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes8c368.52$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.231,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes10c323.51$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.721,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de5…00ccbacked No48c313.77$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.771464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No75c298.75$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.871,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes17c290$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.61,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes24c288.5$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.714338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes69c276.81$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.9411436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed No58c266.83$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.735356.6%30 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No73c251.12$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.33,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No56c249.97$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.4923035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes60c229.81$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9911146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes41c222.74$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.311,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes17c208.07$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7817338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes12c206.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c167.58$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.327,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed No27c166.59$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.6385330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No73c165.83$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.386050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No75c165.46$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.631341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee5e…7f1cbacked Yes8c164.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-60.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes31c160.41$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes21c153$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.851,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe472…4360backed Yes33c150.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505328.3%15 W · 38 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes19c140$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2764333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed Yes33c135.31$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.648551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e97…4828backed Yes13c131.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.464221.4%9 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf60…a254backed Yes47c126.5$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0205…123bbacked Yes21c126$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8091…3178backed Yes11c125.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146137.7%23 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d18…63cabacked Yes19c124.07$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a82…454abacked Yes26c117$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes30c113.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6322028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes23c109.16$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.611,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6371…fc91backed Yes10c108.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.289836.7%36 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3efd…b982backed Yes13c108.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.472725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebee…7f68backed Yes12c108.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.479529.5%28 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf736…a0d3backed Yes23c106$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes32c102.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.551,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes38c102.27$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9563538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa596…5e77backed Yes23c102$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes26c101.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.63,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01eb…8a7bbacked Yes45c101.67$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.751435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb254…c972backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x040a…118dbacked No54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.443644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed No74c99.94$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.985846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes48c98.36$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2311646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd671…7daabacked No57c98.31$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes46c98.11$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457946.8%37 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcdc…57b3backed No70c96.42$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9310577.1%81 W · 24 L+11.1wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+19.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5b07…e4c5backed No73c94.49$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.518748.3%42 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb732…108dbacked Yes43c94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8288…4c83backed Yes21c89.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.074535.6%16 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No35c87.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.434617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes28c85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.953,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bbd…7d99backed No76c84$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.12250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes18c83.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes13c82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.661,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37a9…3ac2backed Yes37c80.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+56.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes23c78.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1832352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes20c78.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.671,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9a7…8a4dbacked Yes29c77.79$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.621729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d49…5ecebacked Yes23c77.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.143438.2%13 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x178b…0c67backed Yes26c74.66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.153330.3%10 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No58c73.54$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8999949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07ac…ab30backed Yes30c71.12$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.56719.4%13 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33ed…bb68backed Yes28c71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.881723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-64.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No71c70.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5762555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes29c70.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2086847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed No71c70.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0423673.3%173 W · 63 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6036…cc41backed Yes25c66.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.79333.3%31 W · 62 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9536…68f9backed No30c66.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.966121.3%13 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+85.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb507…7f2abacked Yes29c63.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.62544%11 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa329…db02backed No77c60.08$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.77875%6 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes69c58.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3616437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…63adbacked No22c57.89$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.16812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d4…2f5ebacked No74c57$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc488…3f68backed Yes30c56.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171250%6 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+84%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.