Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9707d6a97d70bd423eacb8e9b07d8aac75558692fea8531837ad0f0de744f864
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc488…3f68backed Yes | 0c | 14,989$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +84%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 76c | 685.01$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.78 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 34c | 616.34$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.2 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 22c | 433.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 28c | 358.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 356.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 21c | 350$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 13c | 325.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 23c | 295.09$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 17c | 287.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 286.27$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 270.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…81ebbacked Yes | 38c | 263.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 17c | 253.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a87…e685backed Yes | 6c | 247.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 26c | 236.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc7…7780backed Yes | 20c | 236.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…ee79backed Yes | 23c | 221.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd739…ecb6backed Yes | 17c | 221.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…f612backed Yes | 9c | 218.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 171.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 80c | 157.15$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Yes | 16c | 156$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 14c | 153$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 11c | 152.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 16c | 133.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…7b83backed Yes | 19c | 132.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 129.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 16c | 120.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…12bdbacked Yes | 17c | 116.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9723…5bdebacked Yes | 21c | 115.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7423…37f1backed Yes | 16c | 113.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed Yes | 13c | 110.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 103.11$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 22c | 100.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…2c4bbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa428…40c6backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc1…06c5backed Yes | 21c | 97.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…9b4dbacked Yes | 16c | 96.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…6345backed Yes | 20c | 96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113d…a5e6backed Yes | 15c | 93.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 17c | 90.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…68a6backed Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 77.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 18c | 76.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…8981backed Yes | 16c | 72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 68.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…5200backed Yes | 17c | 66.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 66.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 21c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf4…b52ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…d91dbacked Yes | 20c | 60.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 17c | 58.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 20c | 58.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb47…b128backed Yes | 18c | 57.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…74c6backed Yes | 20c | 54.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…6c85backed Yes | 22c | 52.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e7…666abacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 69c | 43.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31f7…cb47backed No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3919…1fcfbacked No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb2…5519backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac0…1132backed No | 67c | 28.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 74c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.