Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bcefe08c0f8c7d6e98e35dff604f1e8ff35ace88ff9652ae95bb8b32e80095f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 60c | 333.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.32 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 316.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf954…dec8backed Yes | 34c | 282.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 27c | 268.78$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 250.56$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 243.61$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 20c | 239.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 233.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 31c | 189.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 160.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 75c | 152.08$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 73c | 151.39$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 39c | 149.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 146.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 40c | 132.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 127.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 27c | 123.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 28c | 111.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…d74bbacked Yes | 31c | 108.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 27c | 101.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 31c | 98.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 26c | 96.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 24c | 92.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 91.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 38c | 77.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 76.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…f366backed Yes | 27c | 75.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 39c | 72.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 16c | 72.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 27c | 71.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 69.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 42c | 66.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c93…b738backed No | 71c | 64.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 62.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed No | 75c | 62.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 40c | 61.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 58.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…0400backed Yes | 32c | 51.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 51.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1c…c73bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 36c | 47.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 63c | 46.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 29c | 41.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…0357backed Yes | 32c | 40.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 29c | 39.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…177fbacked No | 70c | 38.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…c585backed Yes | 32c | 34.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 70c | 30.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 66c | 28.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 68c | 28.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 70c | 27.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 71c | 25.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 69c | 23.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 61c | 23.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 21.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…61debacked No | 74c | 21.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 20.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 20.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 61c | 18.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 61c | 18.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 73c | 18.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 80c | 18.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 63c | 15.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.