Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0abd0c3ea757d4175b1ebe7fc48f159f3f9a244e06a6d32124c8c18a2030611
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 3c | 320.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 33c | 268.36$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 265.2$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 30c | 256.35$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 233.22$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 218.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 19c | 189.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 8c | 182.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…d2f6backed Yes | 11c | 171.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 164.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 10c | 137.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 37c | 121.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 110.4$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 10c | 107.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 107.31$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 28c | 106.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 18c | 77.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 32c | 73.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 33c | 61.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 74c | 59.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 30c | 57.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 28c | 56.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 31c | 56.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 74c | 54.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed Yes | 32c | 53.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 30c | 49.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 29c | 47.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 37c | 47.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 39c | 36.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf0…9bf5backed Yes | 34c | 36.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 32.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 69c | 23.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 77c | 20.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 19.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x022b…1dd9backed No | 67c | 18.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 18.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 68c | 17.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 71c | 16.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.